Why the Math Doesn't Work for a July 4 Clarity Act
With just nine Senate working days remaining before the holiday, lawmakers still need to resolve ethics disputes, merge committee texts, and navigate multiple procedural hurdles
Welcome to the Monday edition of the Crypto In America newsletter!
Here's what you'll read: A July 4 signing for the Clarity Act may be a long shot, but many in Washington and the crypto industry still believe the bill has a path to becoming law before year-end. Plus, a look at the week ahead and the top stories we’re watching.
Over the past year, the crypto industry has been given no shortage of target dates for when the Clarity Act might become law. So far, none have hit the mark, and the latest is unlikely to be any different.
During an interview at CoinDesk’s Consensus Miami conference in May, White House Crypto Council Executive Director Patrick Witt said the administration was targeting passage of the legislation by July 4, calling it a “tremendous birthday present” for America’s 250th anniversary.
Since then, the Senate Banking Committee has advanced the bill, with two Democrats supporting it on the condition that stronger ethics guardrails related to President Trump be included in the final legislation. As of last week, negotiations over those provisions were described by one participant as “rocky” and remained ongoing, while lawmakers continue to work through other outstanding issues in the bill.
In an interview with Crypto In America on Friday, Witt said he remains optimistic that the July 4 timeline can still be achieved, pointing to continued behind-the-scenes efforts to resolve issues in the Agriculture Committee's text, finalize an ethics agreement with Democrats, and win support from law enforcement groups on illicit finance provisions, including the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act.
But even if all of those outstanding issues were resolved this week, there simply isn’t enough time left on the legislative calendar to make a July 4 signing logistically possible.
It’s not an opinion, it’s just math.
To make that timeline work, the Senate would first need to merge the Banking and Agriculture Committee texts, secure the 60 votes needed to invoke cloture on the motion to proceed, achieve cloture on a manager’s amendment, adopt that amendment, and pass the legislation. The House, which is out this week, would then need to approve the Senate’s changes and pass the bill again before it could be sent to President Trump’s desk for signature.
All of that would need to happen in just nine Senate working days — a tall order for a bill that still has several major policy disputes left unresolved.
Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-WY), one of the bill’s chief architects, appeared to acknowledge those challenges in an interview with Crypto In America earlier this month.
“We have to wrap the Banking Committee bill with the Ag Committee’s bill, with the ethics provisions, with some changes to the Genius Act,” Lummis said. “And so to get all of those pushed into one bill and then get the 60 votes necessary for cloture on the floor of the Senate might take a little more time than the Fourth of July.”
Meanwhile, senators appear to recognize that the Clarity Act is not yet ready for floor consideration and are focusing on other priorities. Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott (R-SC) said last week he was optimistic that Congress could send a bipartisan housing affordability bill to President Trump's desk “in the next week or so.”
This week, the Senate is expected to consider the nomination of former SEC Chair Jay Clayton to serve as Director of National Intelligence, while lawmakers continue working toward a bipartisan agreement to reauthorize FISA Section 702, a key national security surveillance authority that expired Friday.
Many in the crypto industry, and on Capitol Hill, view the August recess as the more meaningful benchmark for getting the Clarity Act across the finish line. Even then, some believe the legislation has enough political momentum to continue advancing beyond that point and through the remainder of the year.
“I think it has a lot of momentum now,” Lummis said. “The fact that it came out of the Banking Committee on a bipartisan vote, and now we’re getting lots of support from Treasury, from the White House ... these are the kind of things that give it the momentum to keep us going.”
Adam Minehardt, Chief Policy Officer at Hyperliquid Policy Center and a former congressional staffer, expressed a similar view.
“A lot has been made about deadlines, but in my opinion there is enough political capital invested in this effort that it would be hard to see it falling off the agenda for the remainder of the 119th Congress,” he said.
Senator Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) told Punchbowl News that there was still "plenty of time" to get the bill done and that passage during the lame-duck session following the midterms remained a possibility.
Still, if the Clarity Act isn't signed into law by the end of this year, its biggest challenge may shift from policy to politics. The question then becomes whether the bipartisan coalition supporting the bill can hold together should Democrats take control of the House or Senate following the November midterm elections.
👀 What To Watch This Week
Monday
The Senate is in session this week, while the House is out on a district work period.
The CFTC opens a 45-day public comment period on its proposed rulemaking for prediction markets.
Tuesday
11:00 a.m.: The Solana Policy Institute kicks off its Washington x Wall Street policy event in Chicago. Crypto In America will record a live episode on stage with Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-SD).
Alabama voters will head to the polls to decide who will advance in the race to fill Senator Tommy Tuberville's open Senate seat. The Republican primary runoff is between Rep. Barry Moore and former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson.
Wednesday
2:00 p.m.: The Federal Open Market Committee will announce its next interest rate decision, with the CME FedWatch Tool indicating that the central bank is expected to hold rates steady at 3.5%–3.75%.
2:30 p.m.: Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will hold his first press conference.
Friday
U.S. equity markets and federal government offices will be closed for the Juneteenth holiday.
Iran is expected to sign a ceasefire agreement.
Weekend News Flash
ICYMI: The biggest headlines from Friday and the weekend.
Bitcoin is trading above $66,000, lifting the broader crypto market, following Sunday's news of a preliminary peace deal between the U.S. and Iran.
After its record-breaking public debut on Friday, SpaceX is now the eighth-largest publicly traded corporate holder of Bitcoin.
The SEC proposed rescinding Regulation NMS Rules 611 and 610(e) to cut costs and let competition, innovation, and other market forces “drive the evolution of U.S. equity markets.”
The SEC approved T. Rowe Price’s Active Crypto ETF, which could hold as many as 15 digital assets including Bitcoin, Ether, Solana, XRP and Dogecoin.
Crypto data and research firm Blockworks has acquired rival Messari in a deal reportedly valued at over $10 million.
Citigroup will begin rolling out tokenized shares of private companies.
Remember: New editions of the Crypto In America newsletter drop every Monday and Wednesday.
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The procedural breakdown is the part most coverage skips. Everyone fixates on whether the votes exist, not whether the calendar physically allows two cloture motions plus a Banking/Agriculture text merge before July 4. Even if every substantive fight got resolved tomorrow, the clock is the binding constraint. My read: year-end was always the realistic target, and July 4 was a rallying date, not a deadline.
One can only dream.