The Next Two Weeks Could Decide the Fate of the Clarity Act
With the Senate out until July 13, staff, the White House and industry stakeholders are racing to resolve the issues standing between the Clarity Act and a Senate floor vote
Welcome to the Monday edition of the Crypto In America newsletter!
What you'll read: Why the next two weeks are critical for the Clarity Act, what to watch this week and the top headlines.
With the Senate now in recess until July 13, the fate of the Clarity Act hinges on the work set to take place behind the scenes over the next two weeks.
Staff from both parties, administration officials and industry stakeholders are now on the clock to resolve the remaining issues, including reconciling the Banking and Agriculture Committee texts and reaching agreement on ethics and illicit finance. More on that below.
When senators return, the focus will shift from negotiations to procedure and preparing the bill for Senate floor consideration.
Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) has said he wants to prioritize the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), the must-pass defense bill, during the week of July 13. If that timeline holds, the Clarity Act could receive floor consideration later that month or during the first week of August before Congress breaks for its summer recess.
Conventional wisdom is that the Clarity Act must pass the Senate before the August recess if it stands a chance of becoming law this year. For that to happen, the bill would need the support of at least 60 senators, including at least seven Democrats, assuming all 53 Republicans vote in favor, which is not guaranteed since during floor consideration of the GENIUS Act, Senators Josh Hawley (R-MO) and Rand Paul (R-KY) voted no.
The support of many Democrats, including two who voted to advance the bill out of the Senate Banking Committee last month, is likely to hinge on whether the White House agrees to a strong ethics framework addressing President Trump’s crypto businesses, which have generated more than $2 billion in new wealth for him since returning to office, according to Reuters.
As of now, sources close to the negotiations say no final agreement has been reached among the parties. However, Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) told reporters last week that a new draft of the bill could include a revised proposal allowing state attorneys general to sue crypto exchanges that list tokens issued by public officials in violation of the act, a provision aimed at addressing Democratic concerns. Ultimately, though, President Trump will need to sign off on any compromise, making him the final arbiter of the dispute.
Meanwhile, key law enforcement groups continue to oppose the inclusion of the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act in Section 604 of the bill, arguing that, as currently drafted, it would make it harder to investigate and prosecute onchain crime. Some industry participants have indicated they would support targeted revisions, raising the possibility that lawmakers will continue negotiating the language in hopes of winning over senators whose votes may depend on addressing law enforcement’s concerns.
Ironing out outstanding issues in the Agriculture Committee's text also remains a top priority over the coming days, according to sources familiar with the negotiations. Among the sticking points are federal preemption of state law, how crypto exchanges should manage conflicts of interest and what restrictions should apply to affiliate trading.
Whether pro-crypto lawmakers can surmount the long list of remaining tasks and pass the bill through the Senate before the next recess remains to be seen, and optimism depends on whom you ask.
Some industry leaders believe the time crunch will prove to be a forcing function, creating the right conditions for a deal.
Others worry the calendar could prove to be the bigger challenge, with little time remaining and uncertainty over whether Republicans can secure the 60 votes needed to pass the bill through the Senate.
Still, Crypto In America has learned that Republican senators have a renewed sense of urgency to get the bill passed, driven by heightened political pressure following President Trump's decision to cancel the Housing bill signing, as well as the realization that time is running short.
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👀 What To Watch This Week
Monday
The House is in. The Senate is out.
The U.S. Supreme Court enters the final week of its current term and is set to hand down several major decisions, including whether Fed Governor Lisa Cook and former FTC Commissioner Rebecca Slaughter can keep their jobs after President Trump’s efforts to fire them, as well as cases involving voting rights, birthright citizenship and more.
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is expected to send the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act to President Trump’s desk where he will either sign it, veto it, or let it become law without his signature. The bill includes a temporary ban on a central bank digital currency that would expire in 2030.
Tuesday
10:00 a.m.: We’ll get another read on consumer sentiment as the Conference Board releases its latest Consumer Confidence Index.
Binance is set to stop serving EU clients after failing to secure a license under the bloc’s MiCA framework, with the EU’s transitional period for crypto firms expiring on June 30.
Wednesday
9:00 a.m.: Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is set to speak at the European Central Bank’s annual symposium in Portugal.
Thursday
8:30 a.m.: The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the number of jobs added in the month of June and the unemployment rate.
Tokenization firm Securitize is set to begin trading on the NYSE after completing its merger with a Cantor Fitzgerald-backed SPAC.
Friday
🇺🇸 Happy 4th of July weekend!
Weekend News Flash
ICYMI: The biggest headlines from Friday and the weekend.
Bitcoin is entering the final week of the month below $60,000, while Ether remains below $1,600.
Michael Saylor's Strategy announced a new capital framework and a $2 billion share buyback aimed at preserving its long-term Bitcoin exposure. The company also raised the dividend on its STRC preferred stock to 12%.
The U.S. dollar is on track for its best month in nearly a year, gaining about 2.5% in June as investors weigh Middle East tensions and await U.S. jobs data.
Bitcoin ETFs are heading for their worst month on record, with nearly $4 billion in net outflows.
XRP ETFs brought in nearly $23 million in net inflows last week.
Tokenization firm Securitize expects to raise $400 million through its merger with a Cantor Fitzgerald-backed SPAC before beginning trading on the NYSE under the ticker SECZ on July 2.
A group of 17 Democratic senators has asked the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee to block the CFTC from using federal funds to sue states over prediction market regulation.
A new report from Multicoin Capital projects HYPE could surge more than 400% to $319 by 2028, arguing the market is significantly undervaluing Hyperliquid as it evolves into an "everything exchange."
BitGo said it will lay off 15% of its workforce, citing the need to sharpen its focus on security, trading, stablecoins and AI-powered infrastructure.
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